Responsible Tech MaxxingIntermediateRisk Management60 sec

Likelihood

Likelihood is how probable it is that a specific risk will actually occur, one of the two core factors used to evaluate a risk's overall significance.

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Prerequisite: AI risk

What matters

Estimating likelihood, even roughly, helps distinguish risks worth active mitigation from theoretical possibilities unlikely enough to deprioritize for now.

Example

A risk assessment might estimate that a particular model failure mode is 'likely' to occur monthly, based on past incident data or testing.

Common misconception

Likelihood is not the same as severity; a highly likely risk can still be low priority if its consequences are minor, and vice versa.

Recall question

Why does estimating likelihood alone not fully determine how much a risk should be prioritized?

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